Friday, October 28, 2011

A Few Words in Defense of the Crazy Ones

Science, like everything else, is messy, controversial, and misunderstood, but I'm going to give a definition, an operational definition: Science is systematically observing the world in search for repeated patterns. Theoretical science is when these patterns are organized into a meaningful model (or principle or theory or law).

Today Andrea Rossi, Italian 'scientist', demonstrated to a fairly large group of invited scientists, engineers, customer representatives and selected press…get ready… cold fusion! Using 52 bundled micro reactors, the experiment reportedly achieved 470 kW for 5 1/2 hours during self-sustain mode, i.e. no energy was added to the system. This is not 1MW which was advertised, yet 470 kW, if true, is incredible. It appears that the test was a resounding success. Rossi reports that the customer, who is an American company or government agency, was satisfied.

Per my definition, Andrea Rossi was not practicing science. He readily admits he does not understand the theoretical principles involved in his reaction—no one does. What he is practicing is engineering. Of course, he uses repeated experiments to improve his engineering. With the amount of time and work he has spent during the last 20 years, it doesn't appear that he is a charlatan, but time will tell if this demonstration will lead to world changing events or unrepeatable dead ends. Unfortunately, no one, including the press, was allowed to ask questions to the engineers running the demonstration.

The press has been reluctant to report on Rossi's demonstrations. This may change tomorrow. For now, perhaps wildly optimistic skepticism is in order. The best I can do is give you some links so you can make up your own mind.

Here is an article from January of this year. It is outdated, but it gives some background.
Here is Rossi's site with some of his (and others) comments on today's test at the bottom. There is a link, also near the bottom, where Rossi allows you to download his public report on the demonstration.
Here is a fairly detailed report from a site advancing cutting edge energy generation.
Here is Wired-UK's story on the day's proceedings with some positive and negative comments.
Note that there was someone from AP news service at the test, but no report yet.

Leave it to Richard Feynman to define science another way. In warning against the danger of believing scientists and not mother nature, he said, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." If that's true, Rossi is a scientist.

It's the engineer's lament. "We can make it work in practice—now if we could only get it to work in theory!"

5 comments:

Big Myk said...

"As an adolescent I aspired to lasting fame, I craved factual certainty, and I thirsted for a meaningful vision of human life—so I became a scientist. This is like becoming an archbishop so you can meet girls."
—Matt Cartmill, professor of biological anthropology at Boston University

Peter H of Lebo said...

meh, anyone willing to take my bet for a pint of Guinness that this doesn't work and falls by the wayside like the EESTOR. Guy with a black box and a secret buyer who says it works. Sounds like the wizard behind the curtain in oz. Rossi's device would change the fundamental understanding of science and would top the printing press/antibiotics/nuclear power, pretty much any invention all combined together. And yet instead of gaining the glory, fame, money and girls that comes with this huge advancement in world/science Rossi decides to keep his discover hidden for a mysterious buyer. Would love for it to happen but I think will be enjoying my pint a year from now. Pretty much a win-win

As Carl Sagan once said, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"

Big Myk said...

I'm like Pete. There's the old adage, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. I'm not holding my breath on this one.

James R said...

I'm not taking any bets on this one either. As I said, the best I can do is provide some links so everyone can make up their own minds.

The good news, in my opinion, is that he is finished with testing. From now on, he says, he is just building and selling reactors, so we will soon know from customers if his product is working as advertised. Anyone want to buy one?

James R said...

To keep everyone (?) up to date, there was a Fox News report that suggests the the customer for the first device sold was the the U.S. Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems unit.

Rossi says he has sold more than two more devices. I guess that means 3.

Peter Svensson was the AP technology writer at the Oct. 28th demonstration. When asked about his story, he just says, "Stay tuned."

An MIT professor of electrical engineering and computer science, Peter Hagelstein, says there too little information to decide one way or another at this time (duh), but he is offering some scientific theory in case it works. He thinks the process involves vibrational energy in the nickel metal's lattice driving nuclear transitions that lead to fusion. (Sure, why not? That sounds good.)