There's just one teeny-weeny problem. It's not back in Pittsburgh. But, for Pirate fans, it's Indianapolis, Altoona, Bradenton, West Virginia, and State College.
From 2007 through 2011, the Pirates have spent more money on draft picks than any other team in baseball, to the tune of $52,057,400. They are just crushing the Red Sox and Yankees. In the 2011 draft they gathered $17 million worth of prospects, breaking the Washington Nationals record of $11.93 million in 2010. This will make for some exciting baseball in the aforementioned minor league teams.
Possibly the greatest coup for the Pirates was selecting Josh Bell in the second round after he specifically sent a letter to the Major League Scouting Bureau (That's in Ontario, CA.) saying, "Do not draft me I'm going to the University of Texas" or words to that effect. Then, he changed his phone number in case some unruly team didn't believe him. Five million dollars later he was a Pirate. He hit .538 with 13 HR's and 54 RBI's in 54 games. He struck out just 5 times. It's rumored that at least 3 of those were at the end of already won games when he wanted to go do his homework. What a remarkably well spoken and well adjusted high schooler:
Here is a small sampling of other Pirate prospects, who, for the first time in a long while, rival other teams' prospects.
Gerrit Cole (RHP) - His fast ball hit 102 mph in the Arizona Fall League. His change-up hit 91 mph. See him in Bradenton before he moves up.
Jameson Taillon (RHP) - He will also pitch in Bradenton and also has broken the century mark with his fast ball.
Sterling Marté (OF) - He led the Eastern League in batting (.332), hits, doubles, and outfield assists last year. He will play in Indianapolis.
Stetson Allie (RHP) - Can't miss with that name. He had more strike outs than innings pitched, but even more walks. He will be in State College.
Robbie Grossman (OF) - He had an OPS of .869 last year at Bradenton, drew 104 walks, and scored 127 runs. He'll play for Altoona.
Has Pirate management finally wised up? Perhaps. But there is also room for concern. Let me explain. Baseball, as described in the first Pirate Preview!!! in 2009, best exemplifies life captured by numbers.
By all statistics Clemente merited and was awarded hall of fame status in baseball. In life, though continually involved with charities, he was rewarded by being killed in a plane crash bringing aid to earthquake victims in Nicaragua. Baseball is more of a meritocracy than life (despite what your Republican friends say).
However, the Pirate Baseball Club, as we know, defies normal baseball and seems intent at times not to promote meritocracy based on the numbers. We know they often shamelessly trade away their best players or inexplicably reward mediocre or poor free agents with high salaries. I think one can also make a case that they often fail to promote from within based on merit. Here are the minor league statistics of four Pirate prospects:
Age Seasons AB BA OBP SLG OPS
25 5 1967 .286 .362 .423 .785
26 6 2288 .291 .345 .435 .781
26 4 1739 .302 .371 .442 .813
23 5 1558 .309 .366 .453 .820
One of these players was rewarded with a six year $51.5 million contract. The others either have the minimum contract for a major league player or remain in the minor leagues. One of the players, of course, is Andrew McCutchen. I doubt you can name the others. They are Alex Presley, Matt Hague, and Starling Marte. Can you match the player with their minor league performances?
If you are having trouble matching their performances with their rewards by Pirate management (if only by major league playing time), try this statistic. Alex Presley was drafted in the 8th round; Matt Hague, in the 9th; and Sterling Marte was a non drafted free agent. It appears that the Pirate organization judges its players more on where they were picked in the draft than on their merit on the baseball field.
Of course the baseball writers (and the fans who follow them) are no better. The Post Gazette recently spent 5 pages extolling the virtues of Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker, also a first round draft choice. Andrew McCutchen is the "face of the franchise." Did you know that he batted .259 last year? That's only 10 more percentage points higher than Ronnie Cedano, who, I guess, is the "about face of the franchise" since he was released.
I'm not saying McCutchen is not a talented baseball player. Hopefully, someday he will become better than a .259 hitter. I'm saying there are others in the organization who have shown they are as good, if not better. Why hasn't Matt Hague been granted the savior of the franchise status? Why is he not even a starter? Why, as I write this, has he not even made the team?! He performed better than Andrew McCutchen in the minors. It's hard to justify the gulf in rolls among these four players by the statistical merits of their performances. No…, minor league performance does not always correlate to major league performance, but you must promote by merit in baseball, not by draft choice.
By the way the order above is McCutchen, Presley, Hague, Marté.
OK, so much for Pirate Prospect Preview, as exciting as it is. What about the Pittsburgh team? Well it's kind of boring. First of all, there are reasons for where we finish in the National League.
Hitting Pitching Finish
2009 14th 14th 15th
2010 16th (last) 16th (last) 16th (last)
2011 12th 11th 12th
Offensively, there is really not much changed from last year.
- Rod Barajas (.230) and Michael McKenry (.222) replace Ryan Doumit (.303) and Chris Synder (.271) at catching — significant downgrade.
- Garrett Jones (.243) and Casey McGehee (.223) replace Lyle Overbay (.227) and Derek Lee (.337) at 1st base — significant downgrade, but at least we rid ourselves of Lyle Overbay, the historical doggerel of doom for "Last year's winter addition—this year triggers sedition."
- Clint Barmes (.244) replaces Ronny Cedano (.249) at short stop — pretty much a wash.
Other positions are the same, so to improve we really need to defy past performances—always a risky bet. Last year we only had 4 players with more than 400 at bats. That was due to injuries and bad performances from starters who lost their jobs. Hopefully that will improve, but the numbers point to another finish offensively somewhere in the lower half of the National League in hitting.
But more important is pitching.
Last year the Pirate pitchers achieved the lowest pitches per batter ratio in the major leagues at 3.69. It was a nice try by manager Clint Hurdle and the coaches to get fans home and out of the ball park as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, the strategy backfired as efficiency did not translate into effectiveness. Our pitchers faced more batters than any other NL team, while also allowing the highest batting average (.270) and on-base percentage (.338).
- Erik Bedard (3.62 ERA) and A. J. Burnett (5.15 ERA) replace Paul Maholm (3.66 ERA) — tough to call.
As the pitching goes, so will the Pirates. Here is how it went in the past:
ERA career ERA 2011 WHIP career WHIP 2011
Erik Bedard 3.70 3.62 1.32 1.25
James McDonald 4.04 4.21 1.45 1.49
Kevin Correia 4.61 4.79 1.43 1.39
Craig Morton 5.11 3.83 1.57 1.53
Jeff Karstens 4.52 3.38 1.37 1.21
A. J. Burnett 4.10 5.15 1.33 1.43
Total for starters 4.35 4.16 1.41 1.38
Nothing much has changed from last year. Like I said, it's sort of boring. If you're looking for a glimmer of hope, however, Morton and Karstens improved last year. If they keep that up and young McDonald improves, we could have a better rotation which could blossom into a better record. But, if not, at least there should be some excitement in the minors.
Kevin Correia 4.61 4.79 1.43 1.39
Craig Morton 5.11 3.83 1.57 1.53
Jeff Karstens 4.52 3.38 1.37 1.21
A. J. Burnett 4.10 5.15 1.33 1.43
Total for starters 4.35 4.16 1.41 1.38
Nothing much has changed from last year. Like I said, it's sort of boring. If you're looking for a glimmer of hope, however, Morton and Karstens improved last year. If they keep that up and young McDonald improves, we could have a better rotation which could blossom into a better record. But, if not, at least there should be some excitement in the minors.
10 comments:
Here's what I think: There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening and this leads people who run major league baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams. ... Okay, people who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players. Your goal should be to buy wins and in order to buy wins, you need to buy your run. You're trying to replace Johnny Damon. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon and they see a star who's worth seven and a half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is...is an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. The guy's got a great glove, he's a decent league off hitter, he can steal bases. But is he worth the seven and a half million dollars a year the Boston Red Sox are paying him? No! No! Baseball thinking is medieval, they are asking all the wrong questions and if I say it to anybody I'm...I'm ostracized. I'm a rebel, so that's why I'm...I'm cagey about this with you, that's why I respect you Mr. Beane and if you want full disclosure, I think it's a good thing you got Damon off of your payroll. I think it opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities.
Too bad for the pirates Moneyball was akin to the NFL wildcat offence, lasted about one year. Then everyone found out how to duplicate or beat. Since the book was published every team that has won the world series is 11th or higher in salary. 4 of the 9 series has been won by the first or second highest salary (small sample size though). Why the As and not the pirates for the moneyball statistics when it was still novel?!
Pete, I don't disagree with you. I just stuck in the quote from the movie for the heck of it and because I liked the movie. And, indeed, since 2002, the season covered by the movie, the A's have made the playoffs only twice and, since 2006, they haven't had a winning season. There's no question, however, that sabermetrics has had an impact on baseball.
I haven't read the book nor seen the movie, but I question in the post whether the Pirates have yet to make the best use of the statistics. Perhaps they are more than 10 years behind.
I love the references, however, and the movie has been first in my queue for awhile. It is one of the reasons people love baseball, the nature of which allows a greater reliance on statistics than perhaps any other team sport.
Moneyball is a good movie whether you are a baseball fan or not. All you need to know is that the screenplay was written by Aaron "West-Wing-Social-Network" Sorkin. Nobody writes screenplays about really smart people better than Sorkin. But Moneyball is also a baseball movie for baseball fans. I couldn't help but think while watching the movie, "Jim would love this."
As I said it's been first in my queue for awhile, but the notes still say, "you'll be lucky to live this long".
Sorry Myk, I wasn't disagreeing with you just at all, loved the quote, just lamenting the fact that the impact of sabermetrics didn't touch the Pirates when it was novel. Like any great competitor, most teams have copied sabermetrics, now blunting its impact for the poorer teams.
Jim, you are probable right that the pirates don't uses statistics to the best possible outcome but the glory of moneyball is behind us. Teams now with endless mathematicians and unlimited funds are more likely going to win versus a town approaching 20 years straight of sub .500. John is right, Jim you would love moneyball, the games I have gone to these past few years the fans no longer talk in ERAs or batting averages but in BsR, OPS, LIPs, BABIP...a statistician's wet dream
*use, not uses
Lest anyone think that more people are reading this blog than actually are, the JohnMHarvey comment was mine. I'm not sure why his name appeared except that he was visiting us over Easter weekend at the time.
The Pirates sent Matt Hague back to triple A today to make room for Charlie Morton. What bothers me is not that he was sent down. What bothers me is that the announcers and manager Clint Hurdle talked about how Matt will be back and that he had a great spring training. They never talked about (or thought about) his incredible numbers throughout his minor league career, his superior numbers compared to Andrew McCutcheon at this point in his career, or any mention that he could become the "face of the franchise."
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